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    HomeWeatherDisturbance 1: 30% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 7 Days

    Disturbance 1: 30% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 7 Days

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    As of 8:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025…

    East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea:

    A tropical wave located about 800 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.

    Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves generally westward at around 20 mph.

    Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands Sunday and Sunday night, then move across the Caribbean Sea through much of next week.

    • Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
    • Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.

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