A developing El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean is expected to play a key role in limiting hurricane activity during the 2026 Atlantic season, according to a new forecast from researchers at Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project, led by Philip J. Klotzbach.
The report indicates that weak La Niña conditions currently in place are likely to transition to El Niño in the coming months, with the potential for a moderate to strong event by the peak of the hurricane season between August and October.
This shift is significant because El Niño tends to suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic by increasing vertical wind shear — a condition where winds at different altitudes move at varying speeds or directions.
Higher wind shear disrupts the structure of developing storms, making it more difficult for them to organize and strengthen into hurricanes.
Forecasters say this is expected to be the dominant factor shaping the 2026 season, contributing to projections of below-average activity, including 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
Recent ocean data shows the Pacific is already warming, with a series of atmospheric and oceanic changes — including westerly wind bursts and rising ocean heat content — helping to drive the transition away from La Niña conditions.
Current projections from NOAA place the likelihood of El Niño developing at around 80% during the peak of the season, further reinforcing expectations of a less active year.
However, researchers caution that uncertainty remains around how strong the El Niño event will become — a key factor that could influence how much hurricane activity is ultimately suppressed.
Even with fewer storms expected, experts stress that the risk is far from eliminated.
Seasonal forecasts provide a broad outlook, but they cannot predict where storms will form or make landfall — meaning any one system could still pose a serious threat to Caribbean nations, including Antigua and Barbuda.
As the hurricane season approaches, officials are urging residents to remain prepared, regardless of the overall forecast.