Antigua and Barbuda’s economic growth is expected to moderate in 2025, while inflationary pressures that spiked in 2024 are projected to ease, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The latest Article IV consultation forecasts growth slowing from 3% to 2.5% in the medium term as the post-pandemic recovery stabilizes.

Economic activity has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, largely driven by a rebound in tourism. However, as the initial surge in travel demand levels off, growth is expected to soften. Meanwhile, inflation, which saw an increase in 2024 due to one-off factors, is anticipated to decline, alleviating some pressure on consumers.

The IMF outlined several risks that could impact the economic outlook. Global uncertainty, commodity price fluctuations, climate-related vulnerabilities, and construction sector constraints pose potential challenges.

However, opportunities remain. Increased tourism demand, enhanced air connectivity, new cruise port facilities, and productivity-driven reforms could support growth. The IMF also encouraged stronger fiscal oversight, calling for greater transparency in reporting from the Fiscal Responsibility Oversight Committee.

With climate risks and global economic shifts affecting small island nations, the IMF stressed the need for Antigua and Barbuda to strengthen its financial resilience. While inflation is expected to ease, the country’s long-term economic stability will depend on fiscal discipline, investment in sustainable growth, and improvements in tax administration.