Antigua and Barbuda’s economic growth is expected to moderate in 2025, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting a slowdown from 3% to 2.5% in the medium term. The assessment, part of the IMF’s latest Article IV consultation, highlights the post-pandemic recovery stabilizing as tourism-led expansion tapers off.

The economy has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, benefiting from a strong rebound in visitor arrivals. However, as growth normalizes, the IMF projects a gradual deceleration. Inflation, which rose in 2024 due to temporary factors, is expected to ease, reducing pressure on household spending.

Despite the overall positive trajectory, the IMF flagged several downside risks. These include global economic uncertainties, supply chain disruptions, commodity price fluctuations, climate vulnerabilities, and constraints in the construction sector. The report also noted that the country’s external position in 2024 was weaker than what would be ideal for long-term stability.

However, the IMF highlighted areas of potential growth, citing increased tourism demand, improved air connectivity, expanded cruise port facilities, and structural reforms aimed at enhancing productivity. If effectively implemented, these factors could bolster economic resilience and support long-term development.

With Antigua and Barbuda facing mounting challenges from climate change, the IMF emphasized the need for sustainable investment strategies to build resilience. The report also underscored the importance of improving public financial management and ensuring transparency in economic planning.

While growth is expected to moderate, the IMF believes that continued structural reforms, investment in key sectors, and prudent fiscal management will be crucial in maintaining economic stability in the years ahead.