St John’s Antigua, July 2, 2025. The Statistics Division, under the Ministry of Finance and Corporate Governance releases the CPI for Mar 2025.

Year-on-Year Analysis

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 4.3% over the twelve months ending March 2025. Inflation during the first quarter of 2025 rose at a slower rate compared to the same period in 2024, reflecting a continued stabilization in prices following the economic impact of COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The Food Index rose by 0.4% over the year, with mixed movements across categories. The Fruit Index increased by 5.0%, driven by a 23.9% rise in Frozen, Preserved, or Processed Fruit and Fruit-based products. Bread and Cereals rose 3.7%, Meat and Meat Products (+3.2%), Food products Not Elsewhere Classified (NEC) (+2.7%), and Sugars, Jams, Honey, Chocolate, and Confectionery (+2.6%).

In contrast, Oils and Fats declined by 10.8%, with average prices falling for I Can’t Believe It’s Butter ($22.76 to $16.77), Peanut Butter ($16.06 to $15.07), Soya oil ($9.78 to $8.16), and Olive Oil ($40.35 to $39.44). The Fish and Seafood Index also declined, with Frozen Fish prices falling from $22.80 to $16.57, Canned Tuna in water from $5.41 to $4.64, and Canned Tuna in Oil from $5.16 to $4.45.

Core inflation, measured by the index for All Items Less Food and Energy, rose by 4.8%. The main contributors were increases in Miscellaneous Goods and Services and Restaurants and Hotels both recorded increases over 14.0%, followed by Health (+10.5%), Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco and Narcotics (+8.4%), and Actual Rentals for Housing (+6.3%).

Month-to-Month Price Changes

In March 2025, the Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 1.6% compared to February 2025, driven primarily by a decrease in the Transport Index (-11.0). The Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages Index also fell by 0.5%, as both its components declined.

The Food Index dropped 0.5%, with prices decreasing in six of the nine major supermarket food groups. Notably, the Fish and Seafood Index declined 3.1%, reflecting lower prices for Frozen Fish ($19.21 to $16.57) and Sardines in Water ($4.71 to $4.62). The Oils and Fats Index fell 2.7%, with reductions in the prices of I Can’t Believe It’s Butter ($18.72 to $16.77) and Peanut Butter ($16.08 to $15.07). Further declines were recorded in Milk, Cheese and Eggs (-1.9%) and Bread and Cereals (-1.3%).

In contrast, prices rose for Food Products NEC (+3.5%) and Sugars, Jam, Honey, Chocolate, and Confectionery (+1.7%). The Non-Alcoholic Beverages Index declined 0.5%, with three of its four subcategories recording decreases.

The All Items Less Food and Energy Index fell 2.0%, mainly due to lower airline fares and a reduction in the Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco, and Narcotics Index.