Monitoring is under way for two tropical disturbances in the Atlantic, one of which has a high likelihood of developing into a tropical cyclone in the coming days.

The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said on Tuesday that Disturbance 1 (AL92), located in the central tropical Atlantic, has become better organised since Monday. Environmental conditions are conducive for development and the system has a 90% chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm within 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

A second system, Disturbance 2, a tropical wave just off the west coast of Africa, remains disorganised. It carries only a 20% chance of development within seven days, according to forecasters.

Forecasters, including 268Weather’s Dale Destin, stressed that both systems are expected to track north of the Leeward Islands, reducing the risk of hazardous winds. However, AL92 is forecast to generate above-normal swells on Friday and Saturday, prompting warnings to small craft operators and beachgoers to prepare for rough seas and stronger rip currents.

Authorities recommend mariners review moorings and exercise caution later this week. Residents and visitors are also advised to follow official bulletins as conditions can change rapidly.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs until the end of November, with September traditionally marking its peak.