AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting a slightly below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, but warn the risk of U.S. impacts remains elevated.
AccuWeather 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
- Forecast: 11–16 named storms
- Hurricanes: 4–7
- Major hurricanes (Category 3+): 2–4
- Direct U.S. impacts: 3–5
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, though tropical development may begin earlier due to exceptionally warm waters. The 2026 season is forecast to fall below the 10-year average for both total storms and hurricanes, even at the higher end of AccuWeather’s forecast.
“It’s very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of the forecast,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “Even if it’s expected to be a slightly below average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States.”
> Areas with higher-than-historical-average risk of significant tropical impacts in 2026:
- Central and eastern Gulf Coast
- Carolinas and parts of the Virginia coastline
> Areas with lower-than-historical-average risk of significant tropical impacts in 2026:
- Central and southern Texas
AccuWeather considers a direct landfall, a storm passing within 60 miles of the coast, tropical-storm-force winds on land, flooding from a tropical system, or more than 2 feet of storm surge as a direct U.S. impact.
Key Factors That Will Influence the Atlantic Hurricane Season
> El Niño developing
- Expected to increase disruptive wind shear and reduce storm activity, especially later in the season
- AccuWeather long-range experts say there is a 15% possibility of a Super El Niño developing in the second half of the hurricane season. The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept.10. If a Super El Niño occurs, there could be even less activity in the Atlantic.
- On average, El Niño seasons produce about 10 named storms and five hurricanes, compared to 15 storms and eight hurricanes during La Niña years. Neutral seasons average 13 named storms and seven hurricanes.
> Exceptionally warm Atlantic waters
- Heat extends hundreds of feet deep, fueling stronger storms
- Increases risk of rapid intensification
“Water temperatures across much of the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic are forecast to reach exceptionally warm levels again this summer. That heat extends hundreds of feet below the surface, providing additional fuel for storms,” DaSilva said. “As a result, we are very concerned about the risk of rapid intensification this hurricane season.”
> ‘Homegrown development’ near the U.S.
- Storms may form close to the U.S. in the Gulf, western Caribbean, or western Atlantic off the Southeast U.S. coast
- Storms that develop near the U.S. often leave people with less time to prepare and evacuate
“Storms that form within a few hundred miles of the coast can leave people, businesses, and officials with less time to prepare and evacuate,” DaSilva explained. “These ‘homegrown development’ storms that spin up near the U.S. coast can pose bigger threats with a lot less time to react, compared to storms that form off the coast of Africa and take a week or more to trek across the open Atlantic.”
> Bermuda High position
- May steer more storms away from the U.S., especially in the western Atlantic
> Saharan dust
- Dust from Africa can periodically suppress storm development in the Atlantic Main Development Region
Why the Western Caribbean Is Vulnerable This Year
AccuWeather hurricane experts warn that parts of the Caribbean remain vulnerable this season as people continue to rebuild and recover from last year’s devastating impacts from Hurricane Melissa’s historic landfall as a Category 5 storm in Jamaica.
Cuba is especially vulnerable to tropical impacts this year due to the ongoing energy crisis and risk of prolonged island-wide power outages.
Prepare Early This Season
Following the first hurricane season in a decade without a U.S. hurricane landfall, AccuWeather experts warn that the risk of direct U.S. impacts is elevated this year.
Even with fewer storms expected overall, there is potential for multiple direct U.S. impacts this season, including early-season or even pre-season development.
“There is no reason to let your guard down this year. It only takes one storm to cause major damage, disruption and heartache,” DaSilva said. “Review your insurance coverage, safety plans, and local evacuation routes now. Make sure your emergency supplies are stocked up.”
AccuWeather hurricane experts say seasons with fewer named storms compared to the historical average can still produce destructive outcomes.
- The 2025 season produced three extremely powerful Category 5 hurricanes despite near-average named storms
- The 1992 season had just seven named storms, but it included Hurricane Andrew, one of the most destructive U.S. hurricanes on record