THE MANY FACES OF EL NIÑO
Sergio Díaz-Granados
Executive President
CAF – Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean
In April 2024, Bogotá was forced to ration its water supply when the Chingaza system, which provides 70% of the city’s water, fell to approximately 16% of its capacity. In Grenada, prolonged drought led the Government to declare a national water crisis in May 2024, as reservoir levels fell to unprecedented lows and water restrictions were introduced across the country. In Panama, drought forced authorities to reduce daily transit slots through the Panama Canal, one of the world’s main arteries of trade, from 36 to 22. Meanwhile, Ecuador experienced the opposite: between December 2023 and March 2024, rainfall associated with El Niño affected approximately 160,000 people and more than 35,000 homes. Four countries, one climate phenomenon, and profoundly different consequences.
Traditionally, when we think of El Niño, we associate it with a lack of rainfall and prolonged droughts. Yet its effects are far more wide-ranging. While it increases the risk of drought in some areas, in others it brings extreme rainfall and flooding.
This reality underscores the need to tailor our response to climate phenomena to the specific vulnerabilities and needs of each territory. There can be no one-size-fits-all solutions to threats that manifest themselves in such different ways.
This lesson is particularly relevant as a new El Niño event intensifies in the Pacific. The World Meteorological Organization forecasts that it will reach its peak in December. This El Niño has the potential to be the strongest in the past 100 years. It poses a threat to the well-being and livelihoods of millions of people and communities already facing difficult circumstances.
The potential consequences extend far beyond immediate emergencies. Water scarcity and flooding can disrupt the delivery of essential services, including drinking water and electricity, while exacerbating risks to public health and food security.
These impacts may be compounded by losses in agriculture, livestock and fisheries, damage to infrastructure, supply chain disruptions and potential price increases. A climate threat of this magnitude can escalate into an economic, social and fiscal crisis.
Latin America and the Caribbean must prepare to confront these consequences but, above all, seize the opportunity to act before they occur.
To this end, CAF has made an initial USD 1 billion financing package available to the region to strengthen preparedness and response efforts ahead of the 2026–2027 El Niño event.
These resources will help countries address their most urgent needs while also advancing their long-term priorities. For far too long, our region’s response to natural disasters has followed the same pattern: respond to the emergency, rebuild what was lost, recover what we can, and wait for the next disaster to strike.
At CAF, we are working to help break this cycle. We intend to do so through a combination of financing, institutional capacity-building and regional coordination that complements the efforts of individual countries.
This commitment is already translating into concrete action. As part of the third edition of the International Economic Forum – Latin America and the Caribbean, which will take place in Panama on January 27 and 28, 2027, we will convene the first Meeting of Ministers of Economy of Latin America and the Caribbean, dedicated to disaster risk financing and strengthening fiscal institutions.
This meeting will provide an opportunity to address the challenges posed by El Niño, exchange experiences and advance instruments that enable countries to anticipate, manage and transfer risks, safeguard public finances and respond more effectively to emergencies.
We will also develop a white paper containing recommendations and good practices tailored to the region’s diverse territorial realities. This effort will be complemented by the development of practical risk management tools, technical assistance programmes and mechanisms to facilitate the exchange of information and knowledge among countries and institutions.
The devastating events that have struck our countries in recent months remind us that not all natural disasters can be predicted with precision. Nevertheless, science and knowledge are providing us with ever greater opportunities to identify threats, understand their potential impacts and reduce vulnerabilities.
The challenge is to translate that knowledge into decisions, and those decisions into effective capabilities to protect people, economies and territories.
El Niño will take many forms. Our response must be equally diverse. The goal is to prevent threats we can anticipate from repeatedly setting back the development of our countries.
At CAF, we are supporting this effort with resources, knowledge and concrete action.
This article was originally published by Antigua News Room. Read the original article here: OPED: The Many Faces Of El Niño.