Antigua is expected to face worsening drought conditions over the next several months, with forecasters warning that much of the island could be under a drought emergency by the end of October after months of below-normal rainfall.
The warning comes in the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service’s July 2026 Monthly Drought Bulletin , which found that rainfall remained well below average in June and that dry conditions have intensified across much of the island.
According to the report, Antigua received an island-wide average of 40.4 millimetres (1.59 inches) of rainfall in June. The island experienced only seven wet days during the month, along with a 14-day dry spell recorded at V.C. Bird International Airport. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), a widely used measure of drought, classified rainfall over the past 30 days as slightly dry.
The report indicates that the drought has become increasingly severe when viewed over longer periods.
For the three-month period from April through June, northern Antigua experienced extremely dry conditions, while the remainder of the island was classified as moderately dry. Over the six-month period from January to June, eastern Antigua was rated extremely dry , with the rest of the island assessed as severely dry. Looking back over the past year, from July 2025 through June 2026, long-term drought conditions across Antigua were considered moderately dry.
Forecasters expect conditions to deteriorate further during the coming months.
Based on projections for the June-to-August period, the northern part of Antigua is expected to enter a Drought Emergency by the end of August, while the rest of the island is forecast to remain under a Drought Warning , signalling that moderate or worse drought conditions are developing.
The outlook becomes more serious later in the year.
The Meteorological Service projects that by the end of October, the entire island will be under a Drought Emergency for six-month drought conditions. By the end of November, Antigua is expected to remain under a Drought Emergency for long-term drought based on 12-month rainfall projections.
The bulletin outlines several measures that authorities may need to implement as conditions worsen. These include issuing public service announcements, activating drought management and response plans, enforcing water restrictions, promoting water recycling, protecting water resources, repairing infrastructure and documenting drought-related impacts.
The report notes that meteorologists are unable to determine with certainty whether similar short-term drought conditions exist in Barbuda because of limited rainfall data. However, satellite-based rainfall estimates suggest conditions on Barbuda are comparable to those in Antigua, and officials say the island will continue to be monitored for signs of increasing water stress.
The drought bulletin was prepared by the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service in collaboration with the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, which hosts the World Meteorological Organization-designated Caribbean Regional Climate Centre, and the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum. The report provides an assessment of conditions at the end of June and forecasts drought risks through August, October and November.
This article was originally published by Antigua News Room. Read the original article here: Antigua Faces Islandwide Drought Emergency as Dry Conditions Expected to Worsen.