Antigua and Barbuda’s economy is projected to grow by 2.4% in 2026, slowing from 3% last year, as the International Monetary Fund warns that resilient growth across the Western Hemisphere is being accompanied by high debt and renewed pressure on prices.

The IMF’s October Regional Economic Outlook forecasts a modest improvement in Antigua and Barbuda’s growth to 2.5% in both 2027 and 2028.

The country’s projected performance this year exceeds the 1.4% growth forecast for tourism-dependent Caribbean economies collectively, although several neighbouring countries are expected to expand faster.

Grenada’s economy is projected to grow by 3.9% this year and Dominica’s by 3.1%. The Bahamas is forecast to record 2.5% growth, Barbados 1.8% and St. Lucia 1.2%.

Released Friday, the report, titled “Turning Tailwinds into Lasting Gains,” says strong demand from the United States, high commodity prices, easier financial conditions, robust tourism and remittance inflows have helped sustain economic activity across the Western Hemisphere.

Those factors have cushioned the effects of trade uncertainty, higher and more volatile energy prices, and changes in immigration patterns.

However, the IMF cautioned that public debt remains high, governments have limited room to respond to further shocks, and medium-term growth prospects remain subdued.

For Antigua and Barbuda, the IMF projects year-end inflation of 4.5% in 2026, up from 3.1% last year. Inflation is expected to ease to 2.3% in 2027 and 2% in 2028.

The regional report warns that higher global energy and food prices are delaying the return of inflation to target levels. Slower inflation would mean prices rising less quickly, rather than necessarily falling.

On government finances, Antigua and Barbuda’s gross debt is projected to decline relative to the size of its economy, from 70.2% of gross domestic product in 2025 to 66.8% this year. The ratio is forecast to fall further to 65.8% in 2027 and 64.7% in 2028.

Meanwhile, the country’s external current account deficit — a broad measure covering trade, income flows and transfers with the rest of the world — is projected to widen from 11.6% of GDP last year to 12.7% in 2026, before narrowing in subsequent years.

Across tourism-dependent Caribbean economies, growth is expected to recover to 2.3% in 2027 before easing to 2% in 2028.

The IMF urged policymakers to use favourable economic conditions to rebuild financial reserves, preserve price stability and provide targeted assistance to vulnerable households. It also called for reforms to improve productivity, strengthen skills and institutions, and attract investment.

Antigua and Barbuda’s forecasts appear in the report’s statistical tables. The IMF does not provide a separate country discussion explaining the factors behind those projections.

This article was originally published by Antigua News Room. Read the original article here: IMF forecasts 2.4% growth for Antigua and Barbuda in 2026.