In the wake of a historic hurricane season that brought catastrophic flooding to the mountains of the southern Appalachians and dozens of tornadoes hundreds of miles away from the point of landfall, AccuWeather® hurricane experts are warning families, businesses, emergency officials and government leaders to prepare for an increased risk of tropical impacts reaching far inland again this year.

“We witnessed tragic examples of just how far inland the impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms can reach. Hurricane Beryl spun up more than 60 tornadoes along its nearly 1,200-mile-long path from the Texas coast to upstate New York,” AccuWeather® Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSIlva said. “Hurricane Helene brought catastrophic flash flooding and destructive winds to the mountains of western North Carolina, hundreds of miles inland from where the storm made landfall in Florida. I’m concerned that we could see similar situations this year, when storms form in the Gulf and then track northward into the central and eastern United States.”

The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1, and AccuWeather® hurricane experts are concerned that it can be similar to the 2024 season, which was one of the most devastating and costliest on record.

One of the biggest factors for tropical development in 2025 is the abundance of warm water available to fuel storms in the Atlantic basin. “The water temperatures across most of the Atlantic are above average for this time of the year,” DaSilva said. “They’re not quite as high as what we saw last year and in 2023, but they’re still well, well above average.”

Waters across much of the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf and Caribbean Sea are expected to stay warm throughout most of the hurricane season, which will prime storms for explosive development.

“A rapid intensification of storms will likely be a major story yet again this year as sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat content (OHC) across most of the basin are forecast to be well above average,” DaSilva explained. Ocean heat content measures not only the temperature of the water but also how deep the warm water extends. A deep pool of warm water provides much more fuel for hurricanes than a shallow layer of warmth near the ocean’s surface.

DaSilva says the risk of storms developing close to the U.S., often referred to as homegrown development by AccuWeather hurricane experts, most often occurs in the early and later months of the Atlantic hurricane season. “We often have cold fronts or dips in the jet stream that extend down to the Gulf coast during the early and later portions of the hurricane season. If that dip in the jet stream slows down or essentially stalls, areas of spinning motion can form along the front, which can trigger tropical development over warm waters,” DaSilva explained. “We typically don’t see homegrown development during the peak months of hurricane season because cold fronts typically do not extend that far south in August and September.”

A devastating trend in recent years has been hurricanes tapping into unusually warm water and quickly strengthening shortly before making landfall. During the 2022 season, Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified from a 120-mph Category 3 to a 160-mph Category 5 as it approached Florida, causing catastrophic storm surge in some coastal communities.

Water temperatures near the equator of the eastern Pacific Ocean will also be important, as this is the area that can spawn La Niña and El Niño. Although these phenomena take place in the Pacific, they have far-reaching effects that can boost or suppress tropical activity across the Atlantic.

Neither La Niña nor El Niño are expected to be present during the first half of the season, but that could change by September, October or November, with La Niña potentially returning.

“If we trend towards this La Niña late in the hurricane season, we could see an active end to the hurricane season similar to what we saw last year,” DaSilva said.

The AccuWeather® 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast predicts 13 to 18 named storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes that reach Category 3 strength or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A Category 3 hurricane has sustained winds between 111 and 129 miles per hour. AccuWeather® is forecasting three to six direct impacts to the U.S. this year, which is the same range AccuWeather® forecasted for the historic 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. DaSilva said there is a 20% chance of more than 18 named storms this year.

AccuWeather® hurricane experts say the upcoming season could get off to a fast start with conditions starting to favor tropical development in June. He added that there could be a lull in activity following early-season storms, but it could be capped off by a busy end to the year. This would be similar to last year, when 13 of the 18 named storms occurred between September and mid-November. The peak of the hurricane season activity typically falls on Sept. 10.

“Similar to last year, northern and eastern portions of the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season,” DaSilva explained. “Atlantic Canada and the northeastern Caribbean are also at an increased risk of direct impacts. We’re urging people in the northeastern Caribbean, U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to be prepared and pay close attention to hurricane season forecasts this year.”

DaSilva and the team of AccuWeather® hurricane experts and long-range experts are able to make these predictions with the help of analog years, or years in recent history that had weather patterns similar to what is happening right now around the world. By looking at the past, meteorologists can piece together long-range forecasts with better precision. AccuWeather® identified 12 such analog years, with the 2017 and 2023 seasons being some of the most recent matches. These seasons included notorious storms, including Harvey, which inundated Texas; Irma, which blasted part of the Caribbean and South Florida; and Idalia, which was one of the strongest of many storms in recent years to barrel into the Big Bend of Florida.

Several other key factors could impact the upcoming hurricane season, including the Bermuda-Azores high that is usually parked over the central Atlantic. Winds around this bubble of high pressure direct storms and hurricanes westward across the ocean before curving northward.

“The Bermuda-Azores high position can be offset farther south and east compared to average,” DaSilva said. “This can favor a period of re-curving tropical systems in the western Atlantic when the high is weaker and another period of storms reaching the Caribbean and Gulf when the high is stronger.” Depending on how this moves and strengthens throughout the season, it could significantly affect the track of tropical storms and hurricanes moving across the Atlantic.

Another factor AccuWeather® hurricane experts are closely monitoring is not far off the west coast of Africa, along the equator. Last year, water in this region was cooler than the historical average for a time, resulting in a phenomenon called “Atlantic Niña.” This contributed to a lull in tropical activity throughout August and into the start of September.

“It is certainly possible that we see lulls during the tropical season due to an enhancement of dry air if an Atlantic Niña develops,” DaSilva said. He added that if water in this area warms, it could have the opposite effect, enhancing tropical development.

Weather conditions across Africa may also breed more clusters of showers and thunderstorms that move into the Atlantic, known as tropical waves. An increase in these tropical waves can result in an uptick in tropical storms and hurricanes.

Conversely, massive clouds of dry, dusty air carried by the wind from Africa across the Atlantic can periodically limit tropical activity, as the moisture-starved air makes it more challenging for storms to develop and strengthen.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30.

Experts at AccuWeather® say extreme weather events have already taken a massive economic toll on the U.S. this year and that any hurricane landfalls could further strain the finances and resources of many families, businesses, local governments and disaster recovery groups. Major hurricane landfalls could also worsen the insurance availability and affordability crisis in the U.S.

AccuWeather® experts say the recent severe weather outbreak that spun up dozens of destructive tornadoes in the central U.S. caused $9 billion to $11 billion in total damage and economic losses. AccuWeather® experts estimate that major extreme weather disasters in the U.S. so far this year will have a combined total damage and economic loss of $353 billion to $393 billion, following a multiday severe weather outbreak and flooding this spring in the central U.S., a rare winter storm along the Gulf coast in January and catastrophic wildfires in Southern California at the start of the year.

AccuWeather® experts estimate the six storms that impacted the U.S. last year caused a combined total damage and economic loss of $457 billion to $506 billion.