The CARICOM Private Sector Organization (CPSO) has warned that the United States’ decision to raise Trinidad and Tobago’s reciprocal tariff rate from 10% to **15%** could result in the most severe, absolute impact upon any of the CARICOM Member States. This impact could put the country in the unenviable position of suffering the most significant export revenue loss.
It is noteworthy that prior to the imposition of the April 9th tariff of 10%, CARICOM Member States, including Trinidad and Tobago, benefitted from duty free access to the US market under the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI). The increased tariff rate (15%), which took effect from August 7, comes just months after Trinidad and Tobago had been assigned the 10% baseline rate which was introduced in April 2025 as part of the America First trade policy. CPSO modelling now projects USD 291.9 million in potential annual export revenue losses for Trinidad and Tobago; up from USD 194.6 million under the 10% baseline rate. This figure widens the gap between Trinidad and Tobago and other CARICOM Member States in terms of the potential export losses to be incurred as a result of the US measure.
Over two-thirds of the estimated losses expected to be suffered by Trinidad and Tobago are concentrated in two sectors: Base Metals and Articles Thereof (USD 199.3 million) and Chemicals (USD 74.8 million). The Base Metals category is largely comprised of various forms of iron and steel products which are widely used in the United States across construction, automotive and manufacturing industries. The Chemicals category includes products such as anhydrous ammonia, methanol and urea which are critical inputs for fertilizer production, plastics and other industrial processes. Together, these exports from Trinidad and Tobago anchor the country’s industrial capacity and also feed into US supply chains that rely on competitively priced raw materials.
While the magnitude of the potential revenue loss for the Agriculture and Food Products sector (estimated at just over USD 9 million) is not as large as the two sectors named above, the implications for Agriculture and Food Products are far from benign. This sector sustains small producers and rural livelihoods, ranging from fish products, which are an important export to US food markets, to prepared condiments, sauces and seasonings, which are supplied to both diaspora communities and the growing specialty food segments of the US market. For many of these micro and small exporters, the additional 5%, compounded onto the 10% announced in April, will present an even greater challenge to their export competitiveness and to the foreign exchange earning potential of the Trinidad and Tobago economy.
_“Trinidad and Tobago was already the most exposed CARICOM economy under the reciprocal tariff regime,”_ said Dr. Patrick Antoine, CEO and Technical Director of the CPSO. _“This adjustment not only increases the scale of potential losses, but it does so in sectors that are vital to our industrial capacity and to US manufacturers who rely on our exports for inputs.”_
Dr. Antoine also linked the development to a broader erosion of CARICOM’s historic trade position with the US. _“In our recent submission to the US review of the Caribbean Basin Initiative, we highlighted that these new tariffs erode the preferential access that has underpinned our economic partnership with the US for decades. That erosion is now accelerating.”_
The CPSO indicates that the America First policy and the April imposition of reciprocal tariffs were the wake-up call for the region. This latest adjustment to 15% is the signal of the need for rapid, coordinated action to safeguard competitiveness. That action, Dr. Antoine noted, must be built on proven models of collaboration: _“The joint regional and private sector position that secured exemptions for China-built ships and short- sea shipping for the Caribbean is proof that when we act collectively, we can protect our strategic interests.”_
He added, _“Now is the time to apply that same resolve — to protect current trade flows, engage the US on tariff differentials and position Trinidad and Tobago and CARICOM for long-term strength in a more contested global market.”_