Barbuda is under a Tropical Storm Watch as Tropical Storm Erin moves closer to the northern Leeward Islands, with forecasters warning of heavy rain, strong winds, and dangerous seas this weekend.
Tropical storm conditions could reach Barbuda by early Saturday, bringing sustained winds near 70mph (110km/h) and higher gusts if the storm strengthens as expected. Erin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and could reach major hurricane status by the weekend.
The system is expected to produce 2–4 inches of rain across the northernmost Leeward Islands, with isolated totals up to 6 inches. This rainfall could trigger flash flooding, landslides, and mudslides in vulnerable areas.
Hazardous swells and rip currents generated by Erin are also expected to affect the northern Leewards, posing life-threatening conditions for swimmers and small craft.
Residents are urged to secure property, avoid coastal waters, and follow guidance from the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
- Anguilla and Barbuda
- St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
- Saba and St. Eustatius
- Sint Maarten
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 55.2 West. Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion is expected to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected during the next few days and Erin is forecast to become a hurricane later today, and it could become a major hurricane by this weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) mainly to the northeast of the center.
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erin is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend, and will likely spread to the western Atlantic next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office.