AccuWeather® hurricane experts say a tropical rainstorm that formed near the Cabo Verde Islands over the weekend has strengthened into Tropical Storm Erin. Erin is forecast to intensify into the first major hurricane of the season in the Atlantic. “Erin will enter an area with conducive atmospheric conditions that will allow it to quickly strengthen north of the Lesser Antilles. This storm will likely intensify into a major hurricane this weekend over an area with exceptionally warm waters and little disruptive wind shear,” AccuWeather® Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “Water temperatures across much of the Atlantic main development region are plenty warm to support tropical development and even rapid intensification. Temperatures at the surface and hundreds of feet deep are higher than the historical average in many places. We are entering the time of year when ocean temperatures typically reach their warmest point of the year, between mid-August and mid-October.”

AccuWeather® was the first source to issue a track and intensity forecast Sunday afternoon. The last time there was a hurricane Erin in the Atlantic basin was during Sept. 11, 2011.

AccuWeather® uses the term “tropical rainstorm” to refer to certain tropical systems that can bring significant impacts from rain or wind prior to official classification as a tropical depression or storm to raise public awareness of their disruptive, damaging and dangerous potential. Atmospheric factors that will steer the storm AccuWeather® hurricane experts say several pivotal factors will determine where Erin tracks later this week and through the weekend. “Erin will be guided westward by the Bermuda high through the Atlantic this week. There are two key factors that will determine which route this storm takes by the end of this weekend. The positioning of the Bermuda high and the strength of a cold front pushing off the East Coast will eventually determine whether this storm steers away from the U.S. and back out to sea or if it barrels through the front and continues westward,” DaSilva explained. “A dip in the jet stream over the eastern U.S. may also influence the track of this storm.” AccuWeather® hurricane experts are highlighting two scenarios for the eventual track of Erin next week.

“If the trough is stronger and faster, it will help steer Erin away from the East Coast and out to sea. This is the scenario we typically see with recurving storms. If the trough is slower, the storm will be able to advance farther westward toward the coast of the Carolinas,” DaSilva said. “People along the East Coast, especially along the Outer Banks and eastern Canada, should monitor forecast updates closely this week.”

There is some disruptive wind shear along the forecast track, but DaSilva says Erin is expected to continue to organize and strengthen as it moves westward this week.

“There was a large plume of dry air and Saharan dust that pushed off the coast of Africa ahead of this tropical wave. Most of the dust is well to the northwest of Erin. We expect this storm to avoid most of the dry air and dust as it develops a core. Once a storm has a core, it can typically fend off much of the dry air as it continues to strengthen,” DaSilva said. “We’re seeing the lowest amount of wind shear in the Atlantic so far this hurricane season, which is typical heading into the middle of August. These conditions are favorable for tropical development. This storm will track through a pocket of higher wind shear before entering a large area with little disruptive shear. We expect this storm to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane north of the lower Antilles over the weekend.” AccuWeather® hurricane experts say people visiting Atlantic beaches later this week and through the weekend should be vigilant of rough surf, learn the warning signs of rip currents, and only swim in areas with lifeguards on duty.

“Families heading to Atlantic beaches before heading back to school should be cautious and stay in areas with lifeguards on duty. Erin will likely bring rough surf and dangerous rip currents to many beaches in Florida later this weekend. The risk of rough surf and rip currents will expand along much of the East Coast over the weekend into next week,” DaSilva warned.

The risk of rough surf and rip currents next week will expand along the East Coast from Florida to New England. Are more storms expected this month? AccuWeather® hurricane experts are monitoring three additional areas at low risk of tropical development potential in the Atlantic basin.

AccuWeather® hurricane experts are forecasting a low risk of tropical development from Aug. 12-13 over the central Atlantic. No direct impacts to land are expected. AccuWeather® meteorologists are also monitoring a low chance for tropical or subtropical development to the south of Nova Scotia from Aug. 12-13. If anything develops in this area it is expected to track toward Newfoundland. AccuWeather® hurricane experts are also forecasting a low risk for tropical development across the eastern and central Atlantic from Aug. 15-19. As this traverses westward across the Atlantic, it will need to be monitored for potential impacts to the eastern Caribbean. “AccuWeather has issued a low risk of tropical development potential starting Friday in the same area for the next tropical wave that is expected on the heels of Erin,” DaSilva explained. “Pockets of dry air could inhibit tropical development in this area starting this weekend.” AccuWeather® hurricane experts say three to five named storms are expected to develop in the Atlantic basin during the month of August. AccuWeather® hurricane experts predict a dynamic and potentially volatile “above-average” Atlantic hurricane season this year, similar to last year’s historic and destructive season. The AccuWeather® 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast predicts 13 to 18 named storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes that reach Category 3 strength or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A Category 3 hurricane has sustained winds between 111 and 129 miles per hour.

AccuWeather® is forecasting three to six direct impacts to the U.S. this year, which is the same range AccuWeather® forecast for the historic 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. AccuWeather® was the first known source to issue an Atlantic hurricane season forecast in March. AccuWeather® Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva issued an update in May, urging people, businesses, officials and emergency responders to prepare for an increased risk of flooding and tornado impacts reaching far inland after landfall, similar to last year.