Budgets are moral documents, economists say. They show what governments can afford and what they care about. In 2025, some Eastern Caribbean nations send a clear message: we will spend now and worry later. Others are buckling down, with hard choices and tighter belts.
The Fiscal Straight-A Students
Antigua and Barbuda and Grenada are at the top of the fiscal class. Antigua recorded a primary surplus of 3.5% of GDP in 2024 and aims for another in 2025. The overall budget balance for 2025 is a surplus of 1.3%, a rare feat in the region. Grenada stunned the area in 2024 with a jaw-dropping 11.3% primary surplus. In 2025, Hurricane Beryl pushed the government into a rare deficit year. However, the budget still reflects a measured loosening: a primary deficit of 5.1% as they rebuild—and then back to surpluses from 2026. Saint Lucia is playing it safe—modest deficits, steady primary surpluses, and full compliance with its Fiscal Responsibility Act. In 2025, it projects a 0.5% primary surplus and keeps its deficit under 3%.
The Fiscal Tightrope Walkers
St. Kitts and Nevis had a rough 2024 with a 10–11% overall deficit, caused by collapsing CBI revenues. However, the 2025 budget is a comeback attempt: the deficit is projected to shrink to just 1% of GDP, with hopes of restoring a primary surplus. Dominica is in transition—still investing big but slowing down enough to hit a nearly balanced primary budget in 2025 (surplus of 0.1%).
The Fiscal Risk-Takers
St. Vincent and the Grenadines is borrowing big. Its 2025 budget deficit is expected to hit a staggering 21% of GDP—by far the region’s largest. Post-hurricane reconstruction and the $600+ million Kingstown Port project are driving this spending spree. Debt is now pushing 95% of GDP. The government says it is “transformational.” The opposition calls it “reckless.” Time—and growth—will tell who is right.
Debt-to-GDP: Who’s Closest to the 60% ECCU Target?
Country| Debt-to-GDP (2025 projected)
—|—
St. Kitts & Nevis| 51.8% ✅
Antigua & Barbuda| ~62% 🔜
Grenada| 71.4% 📉
Saint Lucia| ~74%
St. Vincent & Gren.| ~95% 📈
Dominica| ~100% 📈
Takeaway: Fiscal discipline is making a comeback in Antigua, Grenada, and Saint Lucia. Others are betting that massive public investment will pay off—eventually. But in the meantime, debt levels are diverging sharply, raising big questions for 2026.
Prof. C. Justin Robinson, a Vincentian and UWI graduate, holds a BSc in Management Studies, MSc in Finance and Econometrics, and PhD in Finance. With over 20 years at UWI, he has served in various leadership roles, including Dean and Pro Vice Chancellor, Board for Undergraduate Studies. A Professor of Corporate Finance with extensive research publications, he is actively involved in regional financial institutions and is currently the Principal of The UWI Five Islands Campus in Antigua and Barbuda.